Nuancing the conflict/crime nexus: Illicit Economies that fuel conflict in West Africa

This session will revolve around understanding the relationship between illicit economies and instability, relationship that has often been misunderstood and oversimplified. The focus has often been on illicit economies as drivers of violence as key elements of the war economy, financing armed groups and perpetuating conflict. While this is not incorrect, the relationship between illicit economies and instability is more nuanced and complex. Some illicit economies, such as arms trafficking, cattle rustling and kidnappings have a particularly strong nexus with instability and have been categorized as “accelerant markets” by GI-TOC illicit hub mapping research in West Africa. This is because these three markets in particular are vectors of instability, and instability fuels these illicit markets in return. Finally, some illicit economies, while driving instability through financing of armed groups for example, are also a source of livelihood for communities, including in fragile context, hence providing a certain degree of stability – the artisanal gold market is one important regional example of this. Understanding the nuance of the crime-conflict nexus in West Africa is key to to prioritize specific areas for targeted action to respond to illicit economies, and avoid counterproductive strategies that fail to recognize the stability that can be derived from some illicit economies. This session will share new, granular data on the dynamics of illicit markets of kidnapping, cattle rustling and artisanal gold mining in West Africa, focusing on their intersections with conflict actors, including violent extremist groups, and bandits.